HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Telecoms will be in focus this week as wireless behemoth China Mobile reports half-year results on Wednesday.
Usually these reports have been like victory parades of eye-boggling numbers -- being the undisputed giant in the world's largest wireless market has been a good place to be.
But the arrival of 3G in China threatens to finally shake-up the wireless market there. All three mainland operators -- China Mobile /quotes/comstock/22h!e:941 (HK:941 80.00, -2.85, -3.44%) /quotes/comstock/13*!chl/quotes/nls/chl (CHL 51.87, -1.39, -2.61%) , China Telecom Corp. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:728 (HK:728 3.84, +0.02, +0.52%) /quotes/comstock/13*!cha/quotes/nls/cha (CHA 50.59, +0.70, +1.40%) and China Unicom /quotes/comstock/22h!e:762 (HK:762 10.74, -0.16, -1.47%) /quotes/comstock/13*!chu/quotes/nls/chu (CHU 14.18, -0.14, -0.98%) are gearing up to unleash 3G services after finally launching their new high-speed networks.
/quotes/comstock/22h!e:941 941 80.00, -2.85, -3.44%
Plans for China Mobile are particularly ambitious and controversial. It has to commercialize China's home-grown 3G standard "Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access" (TD-SCDMA), given national aspirations to sell it around the world. Its smaller rivals have the advantage of deploying Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA) and CDMA2000 -- both proven and mature technologies used globally.
According to the government, operators will invest a massive 450 billion yuan (US$66 billion) in 3G projects in the next two-and-a-half to three years. Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology felt confident enough to up its 3G user target to 240 million in three years from the 150 million projected in February.
In Hong Kong any mention of bold 3G targets inevitably brings up the name of Hutchison Whampoa /quotes/comstock/22h!e:13 (HK:13 57.40, 0.00, 0.00%) /quotes/comstock/11i!huwhy (HUWH.Y 37.30, -0.10, -0.27%) , which painfully pioneered the technology in Europe. If any mainland officials had joined the conglomerate's results presentation last week, it would have tempered any enthusiasm.
Once again chairman Li ka-shing had to explain away a seemingly never-ending sea of 3G red ink. Since 2003, Hutchison has sunk more than US$20 billion in its 3G business "3" across Europe. Even with 25 million subscribers six years later it is still to break even at the EBIT level, and its cumulative losses are over HK$110 billion. In addition to making results briefings uncomfortable, the project is blamed for Hutchison shares consistently underperform the Hang Seng Index for the past five years.
The Hutchison lesson suggests mainland operators face an uphill battle to profitability.
TD-SCDMA wild card
China Mobile starts as the undisputed leader with 73% market share and 460 million subscribers, rather coming in as a new entrant. And to reduce the risk of investment in TD-SCDMA, China Mobile's parent -- effectively the government -- is building the network and charging the listed company a rental charge based on usage.
TD-SCDMA is still a wild card, however. China Mobile is a first mover with this technology. Much like Hutchison and early versions of 3G, China Mobile will have to learn by trial and error.
We can expect the gremlins in the network to be fixed, and perhaps the capital outlay costs can be kept from damaging the bottom line -- but finding subscribers will be harder.
Getting a range of handsets that match the competition will be key, and here TD-SCDMA is still a long way behind. So far China Mobile is believed to have around a million 3G customers.
Regulation could also turn against China Mobile. Despite restructuring the industry last year to even up competition, the government has still backed away from a fundamental enabler: number portability. You still can't switch carriers and keep the same phone number in China, and some analysts say this must come soon.
3G news flow could turn bad. As the networks from China Unicom and China Telecom go into wider commercial launch, comparisons with China Mobile's service will become more widespread. In September Unicom is expected to launch Apple Inc.'s /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl (AAPL 169.22, +2.89, +1.74%) iPhone in China on its 3G network. To compete China Mobile is expected to launch the Ophone made by Lenovo /quotes/comstock/22h!e:992 (HK:992 3.52, -0.05, -1.40%) /quotes/comstock/11i!lenxq (LENXQ 0.01, 0.00, -7.69%) .
Attention is also turning to China Mobile's fundamental value drivers -- subscriber growth and fat margins. When you get to China Mobile's size, it gets a lot harder to keep growing at the same pace.
Bonanza for vendors
With 3G comes pricier handsets and so handset subsidies need to be increased. This could take a toll on China Mobile's EBTDA margins which have consistently been above 50%. These numbers also suggest there is some reward in there for its market power.
Perhaps the biggest question on China's belated 3G push is whether the country can really afford to build out three separate networks. The government, after all, is still majority owner of all carriers despite their stock market listings.
MainFirst Securities in a recent report highlighted that NTT DoCoMo /quotes/comstock/!9437 (JP:9437 139,800, -1,200, -0.85%) /quotes/comstock/13*!dcm/quotes/nls/dcm (DCM 15.01, -0.02, -0.13%) had to spend 4.5 trillion yen (US$50 billion) to convert 95% of their subscribers to 3G. Based on the 3G expenditure announced by June of 270 billon yuan in China, that only adds up to just 7% of what is needed for China's subscriber base, going by DoCoMo's experience.
The flip side is while that sounds like a daunting burden for the operators, it is a bonanza for vendors.
Both unlisted Huawei and ZTE Corp. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:763 (HK:763 34.45, +0.30, +0.88%) look set for many fat years ahead.
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By Katie Fehrenbacher - Earth2Tech
Congressman Edward Markey (D-Mass.), chair of the committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and champion of the Waxman-Markey climate change bill that recently passed the House and is making its way through the Senate, has taken an interest in algae fuel. Late afternoon on Sunday, Markey got a tour of Alameda, Calif.-based Aurora Biofuels’ labs, where the startup is using biotechnology to create algae strains, which it says can produce biofuel for a low cost and with low carbon emissions. Markey told us after his tour in the lobby of the Aurora headquarters that “if properly harnessed,” algae could play a key role in fighting climate change, and that Aurora’s technology was “very exciting.”
Now, Markey isn’t exactly an algae fuel expert, so the Aurora endorsement should be taken with a grain of salt, but it shows just how prominent the fuel has become, with increasing attention from Capitol Hill. Now that the large oil firms, including both ExxonMobil and BP, have started to take algae fuel seriously (Exxon with one of the biggest algae fuel deals yet, including more than $600 million for an algae biofuels development program with Craig Venter’s Synthetic Genomics) the federal government can feel more comfortable trusting that this technology could offer promise for next-generation biofuels.
Markey’s climate change bill doesn’t necessarily have any specifics for the algae fuel crew, but the cap-and-trade portion would do more than enough by putting a price on carbon. Algae, which absorbs carbon in the growth process, could make money by recycling captured carbon, in addition to selling fuel and algae byproducts. “With a little bit of luck, we’ll pass this legislation later this year and create a marketplace” for technologies like this, Markey said.
For entrepreneurs who are toiling in the labs over algae fuel and other clean technologies, Washington, D.C., can oftentimes feel far away, in both geography and culture. When I asked Markey if he had any words for the innovators building these technologies in labs across the country, he said: “Get ready…Our legislation will unleash more than a trillion dollars’ worth of private sector investment,” which he said will create an opportunity for entrepreneurs to once again transform the world in much the same way that entrepreneurs did for the information technology boom.
The Certification Commission for Health Information Technology, which has been the group providing a seal of approval for electronic medical record products since 2006, will continue to be the certification body for health IT systems at least until December when the U.S. government finalizes its definition of "meaningful use" of e-health products.
After the meaningful use definition is finalized, multiple organizations will be allowed to perform testing and certification of products for meeting the evolving criteria and standards of U.S. and Health and Human Services health IT certification rules. Vendors would need certification from only one certification body.
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In this ReviewCam, we get an inside look at Magnify's video publishing system, including some of its fun bells and whistles, like its ability to auto-tweet, and the very cool capability to pull in videos from many sources around the web.The continuation of CCHIT as a certification body was among the recommendations endorsed by the HIT Policy Committee certification and adoption workgroup during a meeting on August 14.
The HIT Policy Committee is an advisory board to the Office of Coordinator of National Health IT, which is guiding the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services on filling in the details of the $20 billion federal stimulus HIT legislation signed into law in February.
The non-profit CCHIT organization was founded in 2004 and began certifying products in 2006 during the Bush administration's push for most Americans to have e-health records by 2014.
To date, CCHIT has certified more than 200 e-health products. However, with the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 's health IT legislation earlier this year, the future role of CCHIT was uncertain.
According to provisions in ARRA, in order for healthcare providers to be eligible for federal stimulus rewards starting in 2011, they must use "qualified" health IT products in "meaningful" ways. The details of qualified and certified--as well as "meaningful use" are still being hammered out. However, the HIT Policy Committee meeting last week helped clarify some of those ongoing questions, including the role of CCHIT at least in the short term.
Over the last few months, critics of CCHIT have complained to the HIT Policy Committee that CCHIT is too closely aligned with large EMR vendors selling comprehensive, feature-rich products, making it difficult or impossible, as well as expensive, for smaller vendors, open source developers and in-house development teams, who provide modular products with fewer bells and whistles, to get CCHIT certification.
CCHIT announced recently it will offer additional paths of certification for open source and modular products, such as e-prescribing, as well as in-house developed or assembled e-health systems.
Suffield, Ohio — The International Association of Information Technology Asset Managers (IAITAM) is an organization devoted to the needs of Information Technology Asset professionals. The organization provides advanced training, certification, and the establishment of standards for industry best practices.
Their website, IAITAM.org, offers educational resources, events, and a library of tools and tips to help with the asset management issues that IT pros face every day.
NEW HARTFORD, N.Y. -- A PAR Technology Corp. subsidiary said Tuesday that it received a $23.2 million contract from the Army for some information technology services.
Rome Research Corp. received a six-month pact with four one-year options. The company will be responsible for providing services for the Army's global information grid facility in Landstuhl, Germany.
Yahoo! BuzzShares of PAR Technology added 23 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $5.31 in afternoon trading. Over the past year, the stock has traded in a range of $2.75 to $8.25.
Denise Robbins, a software engineering manager by day, integrates her knowledge of computers and technology into all her techno-romantic thriller novels. Her published works include It Happens in Threes and Killer Bunny Hill, with Connect the Dots and Never Tempt Danger scheduled for release in 2010.
I saw down with Denise and asked about the unique combination of technology and fiction.
Your computer background has obviously been a big factor in the plots of your books. How did you become interested in technology?
It all started when I was a kid. In elementary school we went on a field trip to an electronics shop. In there, we saw all kinds of cool gadgets like small calculators, electronic games, and then. . .a computer. Holy cow! I could play chess on the computer.
About that same time, my dad brought home a modem. I’m not talking the modems you pick up today that fit in the palm of your hand, we’re talking a behemoth of a machine that looked like a typewriter with a phone coupler attached to it.
Some readers may not understand the significance of computers in fighting crime. Explain how important an understanding of new technologies can be in staying ahead of the bad guy.
Computers are used a great deal more than people think in regards to fighting crime. One simple example is the FBI’s website that gives the public information on some of the criminals they are searching for. This website not only informs the public, but now there are large numbers of people on the lookout for the ‘bad guys’.
Local police departments have computers in every patrol car, which can be used in different scenarios. Remember the last time you were pulled over? The police officer can put your license plate into the computer and check if the car was stolen, your driving record, or even your car registration. A police officer making a routine stop may not seem like any big deal or use for computer technology, but what you may not realize is that the same computer that told the officer the car was stolen, can also provide arrest and warrant information. Information attained via the computer by the officer makes him/her more capable of making the right decision of how to approach the situation.
Computers also give law enforcement the resources and technology needed to keep up with modern day criminals in the cyber world. Some criminals steal people’s identities or purchase goods with someone else’s credit cards over the Internet. Internet felons commit all sorts of crimes such as downloading child pornography, even trying to convince minors to meet them somewhere, which could result in abduction. Without computers, it would be nearly impossible to catch felons of this nature. Through computers law enforcement agencies can watch these actions and make the web safer.
Because of computers and instant access to large amounts of information, law enforcement agents have the power to turn a possible dangerous situation into a much safer one sooner rather than later.
Explain a little about nanotechnology and its current uses.
Nanotechnology is a technology based on the manipulation of individual atoms and molecules to build structures to complex, atomic specifications. The nanoscale is about a thousand times smaller than micro that is, about 1/80,000 of the diameter of a human hair.
Items already available in the marketplace include: burn and wound dressings, water filtration, dental-bonding agent, coatings for easier cleaning glass, bumpers and catalytic converters on cars, protective and glare-reducing coatings for eyeglasses and cars, sunscreens and cosmetics, stain-free clothing and mattresses, ink, longer-lasting tennis balls, and lightweight and stronger tennis rackets.
A ski jacket produced by Franz Ziener GmbH&Co is based on nanotechnology. The windproof and waterproof properties are not obtained by a surface coating of the jacket but by the use of nanofibres.
The company InMat makes long-lasting tennis-balls by coating the inner core with clay polymer nanocomposites. These tennis-balls have twice the lifetime of conventional balls.
What do you see happening with nanotechnology in the future?
Today, we have just scratched the surface on what nanotechnology will do for us. There are many nanotechnology applications in research and development. In the field of medicine, there will be Qdots that identify the location of cancer cells in the body and Nanoparticles that deliver chemotherapy drugs directly to cancer cells to minimize damage to healthy cells. Can you imagine not having to expose the entire body to chemotherapy but only the part that requires the treatment?
Nanotechnology is huge in the science and technology area as well, in particular, manmade diamonds. In recent years, there has been research into producing manmade diamonds, no, not cubic zirconia, but “real” diamonds grown in a lab and not in nature. Manmade diamonds is a huge breakthrough that will only get bigger. The diamond has the largest thermal conductivity of any material. With every improvement in computer chip technology, the machines get faster and hotter. At some point the chips and computer insides will melt. Diamonds are the answer for faster computers without the heat factor. For the same thermal conductivity reason, manmade diamonds could help make lasers of extreme power. The material could allow a cell phone to fit into a watch and iPods to store 10,000 movies, not just 10,000 songs.
I could go on, but you get the idea. Nanotechnology is the next great wave and I’m hoping it hits soon.
What are some of the challenges in blending cutting-edge technology with fiction?
The challenge in creating techno-fiction is knowing how to keep the story moving at the same time giving enough of a visual picture of the technology so the reader understands without dumping boring information on top of their head.
It seems like the field of technology is more of a man’s world. How did you end up in the field and why do you think there aren’t more women involved?
I think since my dad was in technology, not the same as I am involved today, I was destined for computers.
Taking a job with a government contractor for the Department of Defense hooked me on technology. I was part of a team that built software for use in military medical facilities. It was when I taught computer programs and programming to adults that I found my love for all that ‘geeky’ computer stuff. There is nothing like watching the spark in somebody’s eyes as the light bulb goes on inside their head after they have learned to write code and see the result.
Why there are not more women in science and technology is a question that has been asked quite a lot in recent years. One simple answer is how parents and teachers present information technology professions and other occupations to their daughters and students. It is about encouraging and providing role models.
Another explanation for the lack of women in information technology careers is misconception and preference. Why do I say that as if they are com-mingled? Many people believe working in IT is solitary. They imagine someone sitting in front of a computer eight hours or more a day with no one to talk with. Ask any of the engineers that work for and with me and they will let you know that is not the case.
In general, women prefer to work with people while men prefer to work with things. With the solitary misconception out there, many women are choosing other careers.
Do you have a lot of male readers because of your interesting plots? How do you draw them in?
To be honest, I am not certain that I have too many male readers yet, but I have a few and I want more. I think once the guys know that my novels are based on interesting and real technology, have suspense and mystery woven in with action and adventure that they will want to read them. All it takes is a few good men. . .to spread the word.
While my novels are fiction, when my hero or heroine is shooting a weapon, all readers should know that I have done the research and had the experience several times. My first time shooting anything, but a shotgun at skeet (of which I am a very good shot), was when I wrote It Happens in Threes. I had to know what it felt like. I contacted a friend who taught me all the various right and wrongs and who enjoyed seeing me struggle filling a clip and always forgetting to take the safety off.
Right now, my attempt at “drawing them in” is to give a guy I see a copy of the book, ask him to read it, and let me know what he thinks. So far, the response has been positive. The other little tidbit that helps draw the men in as that I have other men review and edit my novels for the male perspective. It always helps me when Steve or David say, “No guy would say that.” Then they wrinkle their noses and slash away at my work. I am very grateful. I also have friends who are former military and they correct some of my ideas as well.
How do you handle the fine line between giving too much technological information and making the story flow?
This is an excellent question. Computer stuff can be very dry and boring, take it from me. What I do is take technology and introduce the readers to it in small pieces, like breadcrumbs of information, so that technology is part of the mystery or part of the solution in the puzzle. I take the technology and break it down so my characters show you just enough to make you understand, and at the same time get curious. Wait until you find out about nanotechnology in Killer Bunny Hill. I’ll give you a hint – Diamonds aren’t just a girl’s best friend.
Where do you come up with your story ideas?
My story ideas come from various places and most the time it is just a matter of sitting down with pen and paper and asking myself about the particular characters I have just identified in my mind. Sometimes, as in the case of my second novel Killer Bunny Hill, the seed for novel will just hit me while flying across the country on a plane. In the case of my fourth novel Never Tempt Danger, the idea came from a dream. Those are just the beginnings, now I have to construct a story line and that takes a little more effort.
Sometimes I take from my own experiences with technology, but that is still limited in scope. So what do I do? Well, here is my answer.
I did some research once for work when I accidentally ran across an article on ‘manmade diamonds’ and using them as computer chips. As I continued to read the story, I found out about an organization known as DARPA, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. This agency is the central research and development office for the Department of Defense. They fund all kinds of technology research in order to keep our military technologically superior and in turn keep us safe and military personnel safe. Cool stuff!
I can see how computer technology and crime fiction are a perfect fit. Thank you for stopping by today, Denise. For more information on Denise and her techno-romantic thrillers, visit her website at http://www.deniserobbins.com.
LAST THURSDAY, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced its withdrawal of requirements that Green Dam Internet censorship software come pre-installed on all computers. This victory is not unblemished. China is continuing to install the software in computers at Internet cafes and universities. And some manufacturers continue to include it with computers shipped to the country. But the outcome -- although not perfect -- is a success for the Chinese people and the cause of Internet freedom.
The prevailing argument from Western companies that have been dealing with China has often been that of inevitability -- if we don't accept Chinese demands, someone else will. But the successful pushback against Green Dam by computer manufacturers and the State Department suggests another possibility: If everyone remains firm, we can achieve results.
The principle that Green Dam embodied -- centering censorship at the level not of the network but of the individual computer -- was pernicious. But there was a lot wrong with the software itself. It was poorly constructed, with security vulnerabilities that could have enabled hackers to turn the entire Chinese computer network into a malicious botnet. Even as censorship software, it had problems: It worked only in Internet Explorer, not in Firefox or Google's Chrome. The decision to cease requiring Green Dam may have turned on pragmatic concerns as well as industry objections.
Green Dam, with all its inefficiencies, was just another brick in China's Great Firewall. In the face of its people's efforts to elude censors and use the Internet to access information freely, China has an incredibly complex system of censorship that operates on multiple levels, from programs that detect proscribed keywords and delete them to human beings whose job is to trawl the Internet for potentially seditious postings and delete them. Although there are cracks in the wall, China still effectively controls much of the flow of information. Even without Green Dam, it shut down YouTube and Twitter in preparation for the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square.
That's why commitment to anti-censorship technologies remains essential. The key to freedom for the Chinese people is free access to information. Even if some Western companies continue to kowtow to Chinese demands -- for instance, in the realm of search censorship -- the availability of technology to evade China's firewall will make such limitations less meaningful. But until the Great Firewall falls, the lesson of Green Dam is clear: If industries stand together to oppose unreasonable demands, China is willing to listen. Doing business with China does not have to mean accepting its terms when they are unjust.